All insights
Commodity Watch: Fragmentation, restriction and the flow of commodities
<p>Trade restrictions on commodities have increased price uncertainty and volatility. For one, commodities are trading at different prices in different geographies. </p>
1 July 2025
Commodity Watch: Is Fracking Cracking?
<p>The first commercial fracking job in 1947 used a 75-horsepower (hp) pump and produced 3.5 bbls/minute (barrels per minute). Today, a typical job uses 5000hp+ (I’ve felt the power of those pumps) and produces up to 75bbls/minute.</p>
25 June 2025
Commodity Watch: Heterogeneity
<p>Fires move fast. Moderate winds can drive them to 3-6 miles/hour. At that speed, Manhattan would be consumed in under 8 hours if it were a forest. Bad things happen quickly, but there are mitigants. Scientists have discovered that a diverse fauna in a forest increases its fire resistance, allowing it to slow down the fire and to grow better afterwards. In nature, heterogeneity is a plus.</p>
19 June 2025
Commodity Watch: Where’s my money?
<p>Even in exits, LPs are getting less than they bargained for with most positions selling below their mark. The decline in distributions occurred despite strong public markets. Historically, public market disruptions result in muted distributions. If the April turmoil extends, LPs may end up receiving even less cash.</p>
3 June 2025
Commodity Watch: The long bond goodbye?
<p>A tepid auction of the 20-year US government bond on May 21st added to investors’ concerns about higher debt and persistent inflation. Granted, the 20-year is not popular (it was shelved from 1986 –2020), but long-term US government yields remain elevated relative to the last 15 years, Thursday’s auction of 30-year bonds will be telling.</p>
3 June 2025
Commodity Watch: AI is Thirsty
<p>For each one-hundred-word email, ChatGPT consumes 500ml of water – slightly more than a 16-ounce bottle. AI inferences results in similar water consumption patterns (see map below for number of inferences per 500ml). For reference, the average adult should consume 2-3 litres per day.</p>
28 May 2025